Calgary's mortgage renewal cliff: the math
The federal regulator calls it the #1 risk in the financial system. Nobody has done the Calgary math. Here it is, sourced and conservative.
What the regulator said
In April 2026, OSFI (the federal banking regulator) published its Annual Risk Outlook and put mortgage lending at the top of the list. The key sentence:
“As of January 2026, 3.1 million, or 52% of total mortgages will be renewing by the end of 2027.”
That's 3.1 million mortgages, 52% of every mortgage in Canada, coming up for renewal within eighteen months. And within that group, the one to watch:
“Of these renewals, there are 1.3 million, or 22% of total mortgages, that are fixed rate mortgages or variable rate mortgages with fixed payments (VRMFPs) that will be renewing for the first time since they were originated in the low mortgage-rate period of 2021 and 2022.”
1.3 million households locked in pandemic-era rates and have never renewed at anything higher. OSFI's report analyzes Toronto and Vancouver. It doesn't mention Calgary. So we did the Calgary math ourselves.
The round trip
One chart explains the whole story. The 5-year conventional mortgage rate sat around 3.34% through 2021 and early 2022, the window when that 1.3-million cohort signed. It peaked at 6.47% in Nov 2023, and in Sep 2026 it sat at 5.18%. A household renewing now steps from the bottom of the valley onto the plateau in a single statement.
5-year conventional mortgage rate, 2015 to 2026
The CMHC 5-year conventional mortgage lending rate, monthly, with the origination window and the renewal period shaded.
Jan 2021 – Mar 2022 average: 3.34% · peak Nov 23: 6.47% · latest (Sep 26): 5.18%. The dashed line is the origination rate.
What renewal actually costs
Take a mortgage originated in that window at 3.34%, 25-year amortization. After the 5-year term, the remaining balance renews at the Sep 2026 rate of 5.18%. Standard Canadian mortgage math, no assumptions beyond that:
Payment shock at renewal, by original balance
Monthly payment before and after renewal for 4 mortgage balances, originated at 3.34% and renewing at the Sep 2026 rate of 5.18%.
| Mortgage at origination | Payment at 3.34% | Balance at renewal | Payment at 5.18% | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $400,000 | $1,963/mo | $344,103 | $2,295/mo | +$331/mo · +$3,976/yr |
| $500,000 | $2,454/mo | $430,128 | $2,868/mo | +$414/mo · +$4,969/yr |
| $700,000 | $3,436/mo | $602,180 | $4,016/mo | +$580/mo · +$6,957/yr |
| $1,000,000 | $4,909/mo | $860,257 | $5,737/mo | +$828/mo · +$9,939/yr |
For scale: Calgary's benchmark price for all home types is $566,700; an 80% mortgage on it is $453,360, between the $400,000 and $500,000 rows.
The middle of the market is the story: a $500,000 mortgage renews at $414 more per month, $4,969 a year, after tax. And these numbers are deliberately conservative: the rate series we use showed 3.34% in the origination window while many actual contracts closed lower, which would make the jump bigger, not smaller.
How many Calgary households
The 2021 census counts 345,349 owner households in Calgary, 68.8% of all households. Apply OSFI's national share of first-time renewers (22%) and you get roughly 76,000 Calgary households hitting their first-ever renewal into higher rates by the end of 2027. That's an estimate, not a count (it assumes Calgary's mortgage mix matches the national one), but it puts the scale in the right neighborhood: about one in five owner households.
What it looks like by district
Renewal shock scales with balance, and balance scales with price. Sizing a mortgage at 80% of each district's current detached benchmark shows the gradient across the city. It is illustrative sizing, not a measured cohort, but it makes the geography concrete.
Illustrative monthly renewal shock by district (80% of the detached benchmark)
Added monthly payment at renewal for a mortgage sized at 80% of each CREB district's detached benchmark price.
The indicator we're watching
If renewal stress were forcing sales, you'd expect it to show up first in new listings. Calgary new listings are down 12.1% year over year for Jul to Sep 2026. We're publishing that plainly rather than implying distress the data doesn't show. The live listings keep updating as the cohort renews through 2026 and 2027; if a listing response comes, it will show there first.
New listings by district, year over year
New CREB listings per district, Jul to Sep 2026 against the same months a year earlier, with the change.
| District | New listings Jul to Sep 2025 | New listings Jul to Sep 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| City Centre | 2,214 | 2,029 | ▼ 8.4% |
| East | 389 | 313 | ▼ 19.5% |
| North | 1,437 | 1,291 | ▼ 10.2% |
| North East | 1,593 | 1,180 | ▼ 25.9% |
| North West | 1,123 | 1,082 | ▼ 3.7% |
| South | 1,832 | 1,680 | ▼ 8.3% |
| South East | 1,546 | 1,264 | ▼ 18.2% |
| West | 1,012 | 954 | ▼ 5.7% |
| All of Calgary | 11,171 | 9,818 | ▼ 12.1% |
What to take from this
For households renewing: the numbers above are the size of the adjustment, and they're knowable months in advance; the renewal date is on the mortgage statement. For anyone watching the market: the cohort is large, the shock is real but bounded, and as of this writing the listing data shows no forced-selling signal in Calgary. We show what is, not what will be.
Methodology and sources
How the rates, payments, household counts and district sizes are worked out, and where each number comes from.
CMHC 5-year conventional mortgage lending rate (StatCan v733833, monthly). Origination rate = Jan 2021 – Mar 2022 average = 3.34%. Renewal rate = latest reading (2026-09) = 5.18%. Actual 2021-22 contract rates were typically lower than this series, so the payment shock shown here is conservative.
Canadian fixed-mortgage convention: semi-annual compounding, 25-year original amortization, renewal after 5 years re-amortized over 20 years at the renewal rate.
Owner-household counts summed from Statistics Canada Census 2021 community profiles for Calgary; first-renewal estimate applies OSFI's national 22% share.
District rows are illustrative: a mortgage sized at 80% of the district's current CREB detached benchmark price. They show what renewal shock looks like at each district's price level, not a measured cohort.
New-listings movement has many drivers. This section claims no attribution; it is the leading indicator this page tracks as renewal cohorts hit 2026-2027.
Our CREB extraction currently reaches back to January 2023, so no 2020-22 origination-vintage chart is shown; we chart only what we hold.
Sources: OSFI Annual Risk Outlook FY2026-27 (published Apr 14, 2026); Statistics Canada table 34-10-0145 (CMHC 5-year conventional mortgage lending rate); CREB monthly statistics; Statistics Canada Census 2021.
These numbers are as of Oct 31, 2026; the live ones are on the Calgary housing market page.